Welcome back baseball fans. My goal this season is to write a weekly column addressing statistics, player analysis and fantasy baseball. Please follow me on twitter @SheriffStathead for free fantasy advice!

My 2 pennies worth of projections for the upcoming season:

NL East
MIA / Surprisingly this team hits lefties better than any other team in division, pitching depends on shaky health & defense
PHI / Major injury risks, but solid depth keeps them in race, pitching still spectacular
ATL / Braves in transition, hitting still green, pitching exceptional as always. Still injury risks
WAS / Hitting probably still a year away, pithing not bad, could easily skyrocket to top of division this season!
NYM / Hits RHP fine, can’t hit LHP and has zero pitching. 4 team race.

NL Central
STL / Still best that central has to offer, they don’t miss Albert as much you might think
CIN / Reds not far behind STL, should be very close race
MIL / Brew Crew will miss the Prince, pitching won’t be enough to make up difference.
CHC / Team is a mess. Good luck Theo!
HOU / Astros are a bigger mess.
PIT / Pirates hit better than HOU but has no pitching to speak of. However, massive influx of youth already en route.

NL West
ARI / Best hitting in division, good pitching but not nearly enough for postseason. Bauer/Skaggs could be answer.
LAD / Dodgers hitting still has holes, great pitching, not enough depth to make it far into postseason
COL / Rox hitting will be down from past years, pitching not so great at moment. Needs youth injection fast.
SD / Padres hitters better than most think, but pitching not as good as past. Odd team.
SFG / Giants are light on hitting, fantastic pitching. Need Belt and rest of MiLB wave to arrive.

DIV Winners:
MIA, STL, ARI

1 game Wild Card playoff
PHI vs CIN, CIN moves on to playoffs.

Playoffs
STL beats ARI
CIN beats MIA
STL beats CIN and moves on to WS

AL East
NYY / Should be close race once again
BOS / Major rotation issues need to be addressed, some question marks on offense.
TB / Hitting needs to be addressed, pitching superior to rest o MLB
TOR / Hitting very good, pitching help coming later in season from MiLB
BAL / Team in transition, can’t really hit, and rotation is a complete mess. 4 team race.

AL Central
DET / Clear favorite in division, all around great team
KC / Hitters starting to mature and more youth on the way. rotation starting to come together
CHW / Chi-sox hitting below average, pitching even worse. Ventura makes them better & Dunn back to form.
CLE / Merely an average team, not much love for Indians
MIN / Team is a complete mess. Time to cut Morneau cord, and find some quality pitching!

NL West
TEX / Rangers best team in baseball by a wide margin. holy smokes this team is good, need to find way to cool off TEX heat.
LAA / Completely revamped Angels, offense “could be” spectacular, pitching ready to challenge TB for crown.
OAK / Even Cespedes can’t fix holes in this offense. Youthful rotation should pull out a few games though
SEA / Ackley / J Montero can’t save fans from another disappointing season. Felix can’t do it alone, they need pitching help.

DIV Winners:
NYY, DET, TEX

1 game Wild Card playoff
BOS vs LAA, LAA moves on to playoffs.

Playoffs
LAA beats NYY
TEX beats DET
TEX beats LAA and moves on to WS

World Series: STL vs TEX repeat.
Texas wins.

Brett Lawrie is running to break into the MLB (AP Photo)

Lawrie looks to be as special as Hosmer in terms of fantasy impact. All this talk about his attitude etc means nothing to me. He’s a 22 year old kid with a crazy monster bat. He can say anything he wants as long as he’s sitting on my fantasy teams. He was primed for a huge breakthrough but an unfortunate plunking on his hand may have derailed his arrival. The hand is just bruised, and not broken. But as any player will tell you, a bruised hand can alter your grip on the bat and ultimately the mechanics of your swing. If the hand gets in his way, it’s not worth rushing things. He’s already proven he belongs.

My favorite snippet of information I read on Lawrie was that some scouts have compared him to Mike Schmidt. This intrigued me so much i went back and looked at how Big MIke fared when he arrived in the MLB:

1973 132G / 072H / 18HR / 8 SB / .196AVG
1974 162G / 160H / 36HR / 23SB / .282AVG

Who knows what Lawrie will do when he comes up, but if he fits 2nd in front of Babe Ruth Bautista he could be in line for monster numbers. In Dynasty formats he’s a must own golden nugget, and in deeper keeper leagues he’s likely already worth holding onto for next season (regardless of how he fares in 2011). The 3B landscape is an absolute mess right now. Lawrie/Chisenhall/Moustakas are all arriving shortly. I don’t think Chisenhall is going to be the same caliber player as the other two but he’s still worth consideration as a very good hitter on a surprisingly good CLE team. Moustakas is one of the KC chosen ones.

Lawrie is the one of those 3 youngsters who has surprised many (including me) this season. He has always been able to hit, but his defense has kept his star potential dimmed thus far. That has been changing. His defense is no longer holding him back. More importantly his pitch selection at the plate has improved dramatically. The kid has shown me enough in Vegas that he’s on every one of my fantasy teams. In one Dynasty league I had to pay a hefty sum to acquire him, but i believe in hindsight this will be a very good investment. In my other leagues I was fortunate enough to pluck him off the wire. He’s a must own fantasy friends.

As far as coming up Friday June 3 or going back to Vegas for short stint, I think it will depend on how well the hand feels to Brett. He had gained serious momentum and his psyche was primed for a big break into the bigs. This certainly deflated things mentally for the kid, the fans, and the team. If they still feel he can come out swinging a hot bat out of the gate, we’ll see him tomorrow. Otherwise it’s actually a smart idea to keep him in Vegas and give him 2 weeks to make sure the hand is intact and the swing is going to deliver as anticipated. Why mess with the kid mentally in the big leagues? It’s going to be a tough enough transition to begin with. That said, i find no fault with whatever decision TOR brings to the table. They’re going to do the right thing for both Lawrie and the team. Brett will get to try his hand in the MLB sooner than later. If he struggle this season don’t let that stand in your way. Look at how Mike Schmidt bounced back in his second season in the big leagues.

Brett Lawrie is a must own in every fantasy format. Go get him!

Ubaldo Jimenez Ace or SP3? (AP Photo)

Ubaldo Jimenez has not pitched like an Ace since June of 2010. The Rockies believe that Jimenez’s control problems are mechanical and not physiological, and can be fixed. 2008, 2009, 2010 Ubaldo demonstrated a skill set that suggested he was getting better each season. Something happened after the All Star break last season. He has not been the same pitcher ever since.

2008  198.2IP /  7.79K9 / 4.67BB9 / 6.9 HRFB% /
2009  218.0IP /  8.17K9 / 3.51BB9 / 7.8 HRFB% /
2010  221.2IP /  8.69K9 / 3.74BB9 / 5.1 HRFB% /
2011    29.2IP /  9.10K9 / 6.67BB9 / 11.8 HRFB% /

His K rate is up but his BB rate is horrible thus far. He’s also failing to get an acceptable GB% which is resulting in an enormous increase in giving up the HR. One would think these are correctable mechanical flaws. But when we look closer we also see that his velocity is the lowest of his professional career.

Ubaldo Velocity Chart from Fangraphs.com

2008  94.9FB / 85.5SL / 75.2CB / 85.8CH
2009  96.1FB / 86.3SL / 77.6CB / 86.8CH
2010  96.1FB / 86.6SL / 78.6CB / 87.7CH
2011  92.8FB / 83.1SL / 78.4CB / 85.7CH

As you can see his velocity range is not close to approaching last season’s heights. There is some speculation that he is merely going through his version of Spring Training and perhaps a dead arm period. Remember he did have a short DL stint with a cracked fingernail. However similar things were said of Phil Hughes earlier this season about his diminished velocity.

Notice how his velocity range in 2008 and 2009 fluctuated widely. Now look at how tight his range was in 2010. I would not be surprised to find that Ubaldo has sustained an injury that has yet to present itself. If he was in fact going through a dead arm period we should see increased velocity very soon. If it does not creep back up, I fully expect to see an injury report on Ubaldo Jimenez.

Assessment? I have traded him off in two leagues where I owned him. With the amount of solid pitching readily available today it’s not worth holding on to Ubaldo to find out what’s going on. I prefer to trade him off for as much value as you can acquire.

My two trades in Dynasty league formats should provide you with a good frame of reference:

1.) Ubaldo & Chapman for Bumgarner, Masterson, & Farnsworth
2.) Ubaldo & Posey for McCann, Prado, Choo

Matt Kemp and Drew Stubbs are the premier power speed threats so far this season. (AP Photo)

2010 players who achieved 18-18 or better ( 13 total )

Crawford 19/47 (66)
CarGo 34/26  (60)
BJ Upton 18/42 (60)
Rios 21/34 (55)
Chris Young 27/28 (55)
Hanley 21/32  (53)
Stubbs 22/30 (52)
Victorino 18/34 (52)
Wright 29/19 (48)
Kemp 28/18  (46)
Choo 22/22 (44)
Abreu 20/24 (44)
Pence 25/18 (43)

we are nearly 25% through the season
2011 players who have already achieved 4 – 4 or better ( 25 total)

Kemp 7/12 (19)
Stubbs 7/12 (19)
Braun 10/5 (15)
Bautista 11/4 (15)
Ellsbury 4/11 (15)
Victornino 6/8 (14)
Wright 5/8 (13)
Zobrist 8/5 (13)
Aviles 5/8 (13)
Kinsler 5/7 (12)
McCutchen 7/5 (12)
Bruce 8/4 (12)
BJ Upton 5/7 (12)
Choo 4/6 (10)
Jupton 7/4 (11)
Werth 6/5 (11)
Gomes 6/5 (11)
Francouer 8/4 (11)
Ryan Roberts 6/5 (11)
Kelly Johnson 4/6 (10)
Kendrick 6/4 (10)
Damon 5/5 (10)
Votto 5/4 (9)
Adam Jones 5/4 (9)
Melky Cabrera 4/4 (8)

20/20 five category production is still in the bank. (AP photo by Jeff Lewis)

Before this season’s drafts, Adam Dunn (31) was considered a 40HR/100RBI lock, and Shin Soo Choo (28) with 20/20, .280 written with a Sharpie. Both are top 4 round values in any format. Dunn had an emergency appendectomy which obviously hindered his game a little bit early on. Dunn has always been streaky and his power will come in spurts. But we know what to expect from him by now. He has 10hits, 3BB, 1HR in his last 5 games. Dunn is heating up. Buy now if you still can.

Choo was a little more surprising to me. But after taking a closer look he really hasn’t been in the league as long as it seems. His DUI forces us to look at his character, but Miggy has the same issues, and Daryl Strawberry wasn’t much different off the field. On the field these guys will produce as they always do. Choo has shown us 5 category talent for 3 straight seasons. At 28 he is in his prime and there’s no reason to expect anything different. He started rough in April, but the same can be said for a number of superstars in the present game. Last season his AVG in May was only .250, but he went on to produce .306 / .333 / .278 / .340 with an average  of .300 by the end of the season.

2008 370PA / 14HR / 68R / 66RBI / 4SB / .309
2009 685PA / 20HR / 87R / 86RBI / 21SB / .300
2010 646PA / 22HR / 81R / 90RBI / 22SB / .300

2011 155PA / 4HR / 16R / 17RBI / 6SB / .221 (through May 11)

Early 2010 Choo was dealing with the uncertainty of being able to play in the US again. He is from South Korea and it is mandatory to serve in the Military as a citizen of the country. He made a deal this offseason that if the Korean national team won with his service they would exempt him from service. Why is this relevant? If the DUI or some other issue is currently weighing on his mind, we have seen that he has the ability to handle the pressure and still perform on the field. Is there another reason for the slow start?

Let’s look at his skill set trending:
2008  11.9%BB / 24.6%K / .946OPS / .240ISO / Contact 75.4%
2009  11.4%BB / 25.9%K / .883OPS / .189ISO / Contact 75.6%
2010  12.8%BB / 21.5%K / .985OPS / .184ISO / Contact 79.0%
2011  10.3%BB / 24.3%K / .641OPS / .118ISO / Contact 77.1%

His walk rate is down 2.5% and his strike out rate is up almost 3%. The contact rate and first pitch swings (not shown) are both in line with past performance. So i have to look at two more things to figure out what may be going wrong here.

1.) There are more pitchers throwing plus breaking balls today than in seasons past. The result is a much higher Ground Ball rate. Choo’s swing has always been subject to the ground ball and it does seem to be taking some credit for his lackluster performance in his the batting average. Last season was the year of the pitcher and this season seems to be following that trend. Notice the jump in Choo’s GB% from 2008/2009 to 2010/2011.

2008 41.1%GB / 36.1%FB / 22.8%LD
2009 42.3%GB / 36.1%FB / 21.6%LD
2010 45.2%GB / 35.0%FB / 19.7%LD
2011 46.7%GB / 35.2%FB / 18.1%LD

2.) With more groundballs in play, pitchers are relying far more on their defenses to back them up. Let’s take a look at the BABIP to see how the GB has factored into Choo’s success …or lack thereof.

2008  .367BABIP
2009  .370BABIP
2010  .347BABIP
2011  .257BABIP

BOOM, look what else we found! His BABIP is sitting 100 points lower than his career average. Even if we consider that the BABIP should be lower based on pitcher inducing more grounders, last season’s BABIP still applies. Choo’s batting average will go back up. With better balls in play, his power numbers will follow.

In H2H leagues please note his Sept/Oct Avg’s the past 3 seasons:  .400 / .295 / .340 These are numbers I want on my squad during the fantasy season playoffs. Choo is absolutely a buy low at the moment since he’s sporting a .221 AVG. Go get him!

Is Jake the best of the Baltimore Rotation? (AP Photo by Rob Carr)

Jake Arrieta (25) has shown improvement this season. He’s in a tough division and has only thrown 1 bad game so far. That game was his second start of the season against the Rangers in TEX. Since then he has gone 3-0 with 9BB/25K/3HR/10ER over 30IP. Jake has been considered by some to be a better pitching prospect than Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz. So let’s look into this young arm and see if he’s worthy of our attention in the fantasy game.

2010   100.1IP / 4.66K9 / 4.31BB9 / 7.0%HRFB / 4.66ERA / 4.76 FIP / 5.17xFIP
2011     39.1IP / 7.55K9 / 3.43BB9 / 10.4%HRFB / 4.35ERA / 4.05 FIP / 3.79xFIP

His control is still coming into it’s own and the sample size is still under 40IP for 2011. But what we can see is a nice improvement in his control. The K’s are up and the BB’s are down. But don’t get too excited just yet, 2010 the K/BB ratio was a paltry 1.08, and it’s only improved to a 2.20.

The good news is that his HR/FB ratio is a little inflated at the moment. Check out the xFIP (shows some correction to his ERA by averaging out the HR rates) which knocks his 4.35ERA all the way down to 3.79. Last season Jake pitched worse than his ERA displayed. So far this season he is pitching a little better than his ERA portrays. This is in some part due to an older and slower defensive team behind him, which causes his FIP to be better than his ERA. The flip side to that is his BABIP is a little low right now at .261 but it was only .289 last season. We don’t have a large enough sample size to go by, but his minor league numbers help us assume that a .270 BABIP is the expected norm for Arrieta.

Surprisingly he handles lefties almost as well as he handles righties. He tends to walk lefties a bit more, but he also strikes them out a little more too. If he harnesses his control vs lefties just a bit more he could take his game to new heights. His Home/Away splits show virtually no differences. With Jake, what you see is what you get.

Pitch Type
Fastball (60.4%) 92.5  / Slider (19.3%) 86.1 / Curve (13.9%)77.6  / Change (6.4%)87.2

Pitch Values
FB +1.3 / SL +0.1 / CB -0.6 / CH +1.8
He has a fastball change up combination working for him right now. Once he gets that slider and curve working more effectively his numbers could start to really sparkle. The Slider and Change are very close in speed. So they work well with his fastball in fooling hitters. The curve sits almost 15mph under his fastball and nearly 10mph under his Change up.

He should be a great spot start tonight against a weak hitting Seattle lineup. Chasing Wins is never easy with today’s usage of bullpens, but his skill set suggests Jake is pitching well enough to deserve fantasy consideration. In deeper keeper leagues and especially in Dynasty formats he’s a must add.

Tampa Bay's Matt Joyce is congratulated by teammates after his grand slam home run. (AP Photo by Andy King)

Matt Joyce (26) came to TB from Detroit as part of the Edwin Jackson trade. With Manny Ramirez’ departure, Joyce has an opportunity to carve himself a nice chunk of playing time. Johnny Damon isn’t getting any younger, he also hasn’t been taking as many walks. Zobrist is capable of playing 2B and there is suddenly room for Matt Joyce to produce.

2010  261PA / 52H / 40BB / 10HR / 2SB / 15.3%BB /  25.5%K / .236ISO / .837OPS
2011    90PA / 28H / 9BB / 2HR / 3SB / 10.0%BB /  23.5%K / .172ISO / .930OPS (through May3)

Looks good right? It is as long as you sit him vs. Lefties. Don’t bother playing him because Joe Maddon won’t have him in the lineup. But vs Righties he’s a legit bat. I’m usually not in favor of platoon players but in deeper formats or keeper leagues Joyce is enticing.

vs L 16PA / 2H / 3BB / 5K / .000 ISO / .466OPS / .154AVG
vs R 74PA / 26H / 6BB / 14K / .206 ISO / 1.021OPS / .382AVG

With a 1.021OPS vs Righties I will surely be starting him in my OPS league. The power potential is there for him to hit 25-30HR “this” season even with the splits, and platooning vs lefties. What? you say! Check this out.

2010 261PA / 23.9%GB / 48.8%FB / 18.3%LD / 12.5% HRFB / .477 SLG
2011 90PA / 38.7%GB / 33.9%FB / 27.4%LD / 9.5% HRFB / .519 SLG

Player A lebuk nosaj had 21HR last season
2010 582PA /  37.6%GB / 43.2%FB / 19.2%LD / 11.9% HRFB / .427 SLG
2011 106PA / 30%GB / 47.5%FB / 12.5%LD / 5.3% HRFB / .510 SLG

Player B ttocs ekul / had 27HR last season
2010 517PA / 40.4%GB / 40.7%FB / 18.8%LD / 18.6% HRFB / .535 SLG
2011 79PA / 28.8%GB / 55.8%FB / 15.4%LD / 17.2% HRFB / .507 SLG

Matt Joyce is younger than these other two power platoon players. Should his HR/FB% climb back up to the 12-13% range he will start smashing bombs at a faster rate. He has started heating up recently and his next two starts are against Lefties so you will have some time to figure out if you want him on your squad.

Updated Joyce Stats (through May 15)
2011    132PA / 43H / 13BB / 6HR / 3SB / 9.8%BB /  20.5%K / .248ISO / 1.040OPS / 19.4% HRFB /

You're killing me Harrison! (AP Photo)

Dear Matt Harrison,

You’re killing me.  Others say you’re no good, I stick up for you! I promoted your ability to pitch. I put my neck on the line for you! This is how you repay me? You will get one more start on my roster, If you don’t get your **** together I’m gonna toss you back into the great Abyss where I found you.

Brad Evans, I stand corrected. Look at the LD rate climb and his ERA soar like an Eagle on a mission. But it’s more than that. His control and composure on the mound fell completely apart. Awful. I must now hang my head and walk away.

Harrison? Where are you going? I’m not through with you! You’re a tease Harrison, that’s what you are:
First 4 Games:
Matt Harrison .192 BABIP / 8.9%LD / 53.2%GB / 38%FB / 1.88ERA / 4.02FIP / 5.97 K9 / 2.83 BB9 / 0.94 HR9

After an additional 4.2 innnings of work:
Matt Harrison .280 BABIP / 17.8%LD / 47.5%GB / 34.7%FB / 4.59ERA / 4.54FIP / 5.67 K9 / 3.78 BB9 / 1.08 HR9

How bad were those 4.2 innings to damage his season stat line this badly?
4.26 vs TOR L / 3.0IP / 8H / 3BB / 4FB / 2GB/ 7LD / 7ER /
Lets talk about the 1st inning of this outting for a moment:

Harrison walked 3 of the first 6 batters he faced. In my honest opinion, Walking Bautista was the nail in the coffin, everything snowballed from there. Key stat? His 7 Line Drives int his game are as many as he had in the previous 4 games combined.
1st Inning:
Escobar, Single on 1st pitch
Patterson, Bunt Single
Batista, Walk
Lind, Single, RBI
Rivera, Walk, RBI
Arencibia, Walk, RBI
Snider, Ground into double play
McDonald, Single, RBI
McDonald, SB
McCoy, Lined Out

Your control was abysmal, Evans was “in my face” on Twitter immediately after this inning ends, and rightly so. What did I do Harrison? I decided to chalk it up as a fluke outing, everyone has bad days, even the Mound Masters known as Doc Holliday and Cliff Lee get hit from time to time. But I continued to back you up, and defend your name. What do you do next? Your next outing was even worse than your Toronto implosion! And this time you faced a light hitting OAK team which had been struggling.

5.1 vs OAK L / 1.2IP / 6H / 2BB / 1FB / 4GB/ 4LD / 4ER

Assessment:
Your GB rate is way down from where it was when you were WINNING. Your K’s are down, BB are up. You’re doing everything you were told not to do! Get your **** together Harrison. Or your abysmal performance will get you thrown into the box. If you have another bad outing I’m going to take it personally. Unfortunatley the sample size of the season is starting to show things more clearly. Your best outing was against a slumping Boston lineup to start the season, no wonder you had 8K vs 2BB. I’m this close to dropping your *** right now Harrison! This Close!  Get your **** together.

Sincerely,
Sheriff Stathead

Is Dempster currently on a fast decline? (AP Photo by Charles Rex Arbogast)

Many experts are advising you to stick with Ryan Dempster (33) because of past performance. I dropped him last week in 2 deep H2H leagues. If you own this Cub on your fantasy team you don’t need me to elaborate on the misery you’ve been experiencing. If you just saw him on the waiver wire you might think another over reacting manager cut bait too soon. It’s tough to leave a  200k caliber pitcher on the wire but it’s not unheard of in competitive leagues (AJ Burnett anyone?)

First of all his velocity has been trending downward. He seemed to stabilize a bit from 2009 – mid 2010. Late last season through this season it’s the lowest it’s been since 2007. Here is a chart from Fangraphs that articulates the decline in velocity.

Ryan Dempster Velocity Chart, courtesy of Fangraphs

Dempster’s struggles with control date all the way back to 1998 when he came up with the Florida Marlins. When his control is off his ERA skyrockets. From 2001 – 2007 his BB9 ranged from 5.66 – 4.05. The recent stretch from 2008-2010 his BB9 was the lowest of his entire career 3.31, 2.93, 3.59, respectively. Yes the K-rate is still there, but it’s misleading. His K9 is 8.42 which is excellent, but his current BB9 is ugly at 4.65, His K/BB is the lowest it’s been since 2004 at 1.81. This means he’s walking too many batters to the amount he is striking out. Cliff Lee is now sporting a 9.75 K/BB ratio, Gavin Floyd a 4.13K/BB, Even Justin Masterson (not strikeout pitcher) is better with a 2.00 K/BB.

Batters have traditionally had a hard time hitting Dempster. From 2004 – 2010 batters never hit higher than .254 against him. In 2003 they hit .285, now they are hitting .313. Combine that batting average against, with a high walk rate and you can see why he’s sporting an 9.58ERA and a 6.60FIP. (FIP is Fielders Independent ERA, this takes poor fielding out of the equation and tells us how well Dempster is pitching on his own.) Currently Righties are hitting him, Lefties are killing him, and he’s paying dearly for every mistake he makes. The good news is that his AVG is bound to come back down some because his BABIP is inflated at the moment. The bad news is that his BB rate is unlikely to be affected.

He now holds a 2.61HR9 which is more than double what he has had in any year in his career. In this case I will chalk it up to small sample sizes and believe his ERA drops a bit as a result. But his ERA is currently over 9ER per 9IP.

Think of a flickering light bulb before the light completely goes out. August 31 of last season he gave up 7ER in 3IP against PIT, then on Sept 23 he gave up 9ER in 1.2IP against SF. Those were the worst two outings he has had since June 27, 2008. The outings last season were less than a month apart. (Go back to the velocity chart and you can see that his velocity was much lower at that time.) He has followed that up this season with 6 starts, 1W (against a weak HOU lineup), 9.58ERA, 1.87WHIP, 1.81K/BB.

I expect Dempster to hit the DL soon with an injury that’s been elusive to everyone, including him. He did have Tommy John surgery in 2003. Dempster likes to throw Sliders 35% of the time. The Slider has been known to take a significant toll on a pitchers elbow. Should they not find anything wrong I can’t imagine the Cubs allow his current performance to continue longer before taking action. If you still believe in Dempster you can stash him on your bench if you have the roster space. Otherwise cutting bait is the only move worth making.

Good Luck, See you around the Diamond!

Houston Astros' Brett Wallace heads down the first base line after getting the only hit off of Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett in the fifth inning of an exhibition baseball game on Wednesday, March 30, 2011, in Houston. (AP photo/Pat Sullivan)

A very young Brett Wallace (24) has seemingly been around forever, and looks to be finally figuring things out with the Astros. If you’re like me and have been ignoring him since he plays for the Astros, you’re not aware this kid has been hitting really well. He should be owned in almost all leagues by now (sorry I’m a bit late to the party), but I was able to pluck him off the wire in a 10 team mixed Dynasty H2H league with 30 player rosters. In 12 teamers and deeper he’s long gone.  His minor league performance has hinted at good power & good average. Since he’s likely already owned in your league, the biggest questions we need to ask are 1.) What is his current value 2.) Is his current performance legit?

AAA Toronto
2010 423 PA / 116H / 18HR / 6.4%BB / 21.6%K / .301AVG / .208ISO /
Majors Houston
2010 159 PA / 32H / 2HR / 5.0%BB / 34.7%K / .222AVG /.097ISO /
2011 79 PA / 29H / 1HR / 9.1%BB / 19%K / .367AVG / .127ISO /

He has nearly as many hits in half as many plate appearances so far. Obviously his plate discipline is much better. Is he getting lucky?

BABIP & Contact Rates
2010 .326 BABIP / 76.3 CT% / 62.9 F-Strike%
2011 .444 BABIP / 76.6 CT% / 56.8 F-Strike %

The plate discipline is legit, His contact rates appear identical from last season, but he’s waiting for the pitches he wants as evidenced by the decrease in his first pitch strike %. The BABIP is a little inflated so the AVG is going to regress a bit. How much?

GB / FB / LD
2010 37GB (39.4%) / 41FB (43.6%)/ 16LD (17%)
2011 30GB (46.9%) / 18FB (28.1%)/ 16LD (25%)
It’s important to keep in mind that he has nearly half as many plate appearances in 2011 than he had in 2010. Everything is better(because he’s getting more hits) The Groundball and Line Drive rates seem to be in line with past performance. The Fly Ball rates however give reason for a deeper look. I don’t have the data to confirm but I’m willing to bet that he’s laying off pitches that promote fly ball outs. This would explain the lack of HR’s so far. The good news is that some of these line drives he’s hitting are going to leave the park at some point. The bad news is that the GB rate is going to catch up to him and this will cause his AVG to fall back to earth a bit. I expect his FB rate will begin to creep back up at some point as well as he begins to try hitting for more power.

So what have we learned about Brett Wallace? He has without question improved his plate discipline. This is not arguable.His BABIP is inflating his batting average a bit, and the power will come in time. 8 of his 21 hits have gone for extra bases. His ISO is climbing and 5 of those XBH have come in his past 6 games. Those past 6 games have shown him being far more aggressive at the plate with 6K and 0BB, but he does have 14hits against NYM, MIL, STL during that time. He’s starting to look a lot like a Billy Butler type hitter to me. Good approach at the plate, potential power that hasn’t manifested yet (only 24 years old).

Value: Billy Butler-lite with upside
Legit Performance: Absolutely

Target him in Keeper or Dynasty formats in Deeper leagues. If he’s on the wire you will need to grab him immediately, he could be gone before you get back from lunch. If he’s owned or you are in an Annual Re-Draft league, you will need to assess your team’s specific needs. If you want help or extra advice, you can always find me on Twitter. I’m happy to help all of my followers.

Good Luck, See you around the Diamond!